Wednesday, December 1, 2010

2022 World Cup Bid Final Preview & Ratings

With just a matter of hours now until we find out which countries will play host to the football World Cup in 2022, I've decided to take a look at where the strength in the bids lie and where they may fall apart. All five countries competing for the bid aren't just there to make up numbers (I'm talking to you Istanbul's olympic bidding committee!), they have a solid case for bring the World Game to their doorstep. The topics I've given marks to are my personal opninion of what factors should be taken into account, but not necessarily will be, when deciding who receives the rights to the cup. The numbers I've chosen to award marks out of is just simply my opnion on what percentage the factors are most crucial compared to one another. So, for me, infrastructure is the clear priority, along with security and potential for profit the event has.

Australia:
Domestic League (out of 10)_________7
Security (15)_____________________14
Transport/Access (10)_____________4
Profitability (10)___________________5
Weather (10)_____________________9
Rotation Policy/Previous Hosting (10)_10
Team Ranking (5)_________________5
Infrastructure (20)________________16
Atmosphere/Passion (10)___________8
TOTAL:78/100

Australia's A-League competition has become a little financially unstable after such a dominant beginning earlier last decade. However the strength of competition still remains, and is among the best of the bidding nations for 2022. Security is absolutely no concern for tourists. Distance between capital cities is a huge issue, however, and flight is the only viable method to get from one end of the country to the other in time to see a consecutive group match. The next biggest concern in the bid is the distance from major footballing centres and the time zone difference between Australia and Europe - the largest audience share for the tournament. However, I feel these arguments are hurt by the Korea/Japan 2002 tournament, which lies on a virtually identical time zone. Furthermore, as as been the argument throughout the bid, FIFA must expand out of its European/Americas safehouse at a larger rate if it wants to achieve a true, global market. The Australian bid is the only bid that must deal with Winter weather. However, as unpredictable as some temperatures can be (particuarly the further south you go), an Australian Winter is similar to a European Summer at times and it shouldn't really hurt the bid terribly. Oceania is the only untouched continent by FIFA, is this is the biggest plus for Australia, as they suffer no penalty of previous hosting rights whatsoever. Australia is currently ranked #20 in the world - the highest of any bidders. It stands as an example of the rapid rate of success that Australia has discovered in the sport over the last decade or so. Infrastructure isn't a huge issue. Three-quarters of Australia's proposed stadiums are either set or need minor renovations. The largest issue, however, is ground sharing with other football codes in the country - but this has 12 years to be resolved. Finally, passion for the game is existent, but not as great as other football codes in the country - rugby union & league and Australian Rules - which is a negative. However, the atmopshere, locations and facilities on offer make up for this minor issue - plus Australia have proven themselves through hosting the (supposed 'greatest')Olympics at the most recent time compared to the other bidders. Overall, Australia has a good chance of taking the rights, but ground sharing and profitability are massive drawbacks.

Japan:
Domestic League (out of 10)_________8
Security (15)_____________________12
Transport/Access (10)______________9
Profitability (10)___________________6
Weather (10)_____________________8
Rotation Policy/Previous Hosting (10)__2
Team Ranking (5)__________________5
Infrastructure (20)_________________14
Atmosphere/Passion (10)____________7
TOTAL:71/100

Japan's J-League has been running for nearly two decades now, and rather successfully. Just last season it added four new franchises in one hit. It is the highest-graded domestic competition in the Asian Football Confederation, and has earnt that place. There aren't huge security concerns surrounding the Japanese bid, more-so from its overseas neighbour in South Korea, which has been embroiled in a regretful and tense struggle with its northern counterpart. Japan has already proven its worth in hosting this tournament, and its small size and phenomenal transport system that is bounds ahead of the other bidding nations are nice positives. Again, the unncessary time-zone issue arises with the three Asian/Oceania bidders. Television audiences do play just as big a part in the tournament as the people who are physically present at the tournament itself it must be said. Also, Japan has sufferred rather heavily from the global financial crisis, but their sound economic management makes this little of a concern. Japanese Summer weather might throw up a few rainy surprises, but we've seen how smoothly the weather can run just eight years ago. Japan suffers a huge blow to the gut though, with such a sudden bid after just eight years between their last venture. Plus a failed 2016 Olympic bid will probably hurt their chances, seeing as they've had a split focus when it comes to future International sporting events. Japan's ranking is of no concern, and the support for the game is solid. There aren't any conerns about stadiums and facilities, however with an expanding fan and media base, FIFA is looking for a 100,000+ capacity stadium for the future editions of the cup, and that's something Japan lacks. A lack of English as first language and a detached culture from western society are just minor things that will have little impact on the final result. What will have the impact is the short turnaround between hosting and having another dig. Expect Japan to miss the cut on this one.

Qatar:
Domestic League (out of 10)__________6
Security (15)______________________13
Transport/Access (10)______________10
Profitability (10)___________________10
Weather (10)______________________5
Rotation Policy/Previous Hosting (10)__10
Team Ranking (5)__________________2
Infrastructure (20)_________________17
Atmosphere/Passion (10)____________7
TOTAL:80/100

The fact that I needed the official FIFA website to tell me the name of Qatar's domestic league (Qatar Stars League, in case you were wondering) doesn't say much for the level of competition. In saying that, it has been running since 1963 with a very solid and rarely changed format, so I can't take too much away from it. Security is always an issue, sadly, when discussing the potential of Middle-Eastern nations to host foreigners in what is usually a religiously unstable area of the world. But Qatar, like neighbours Bahrain and United Arab Emirates, have very good records of public safety from terrorism. Especially compared to other nations lying to the north of the Persian Gulf, Qatar can hold its head up high. And the last significant terrorist attack was in 2005, over five years ago now. The Qatar committee have made the bold claim that all stadiums will be within minutes from each other. The small size of the country is a big advantage in this respect, much like the last two World Cups in South Africa and Japan/Korea respectively. Qatar is lucky enough to have a very accessible timezone that allows most viewers in the world to not lose too much sleep watching the cup, which is a big drawcard of the bid compared to the locations of the four other bidding nations. Qatar can almost throw anything they want at this bid, seeing as money is no object whatsoever. The nation has the highest GDP of any nation on Earth - even more than the European powerhouses of Liechtenstein and Switzerland. This inevitably means that the cup will receive huge support financially on a local level from both governments and citizens, as well as globally. The glaring issue with the bid is the extreme heat of the Summer in the Qatari desert, where temperatures have been known to peak at over 50 degrees celcius. The bidding committee claim that all stadiums will be indoor and include a state-of-the-art cooling system designed to keep stadiums below 30 degrees at all times. Although this claim is untested, with the insane financial backing this project would get, I wouldn't doubt it for one second. The Middle East haven't come close to hosting a cup, so there's no holding Qatar back in this respect. The teams ranking is 113, well below the other four nations. Some will question sending the cup to a nation with disappointing world credentials, but with a population of just 1.6 million, it's hard to be harsh on the subject. The Asian Games of 2006, which ran smoothly, set up much of the infrastructure that would be needed for the World Cup. As money is virtually no object to the committee, any upgrades or renovations are easily made. Such a lack of travel and distance between stadiums might lead some to find a lack of diversity and experience when visiting the country, but there isn't too much of a culture penalty; Doha is a city that rivals, and probably beats, the western world for towering beauty and prosperity. Qatar deserves every bit of the favouritism they get, but will the weather and relatively weak challenge to the global rankings be a let down?

South Korea:
Domestic League (out of 10)_________7
Security (15)_____________________7
Transport/Access (10)______________9
Profitability (10)___________________6
Weather (10)_____________________8
Rotation Policy/Previous Hosting (10)__3
Team Ranking (5)__________________4
Infrastructure (20)_________________15
Atmosphere/Passion (10)____________6
TOTAL:65/100

The K-league is nearly 30 years old - older than its J brother to the west. It boasts what is probably the equal second strongest level of competition in the AFC, along with Australia's A-League. Security is hard not to talk about when you hear the word 'Korea.' The highly publicised feud with their Northern namesake isn't doing their bid any justice, and probably removed the last, faint piece of hope it had. Even looking twelve years into the future, it is hard to tell where the Korea talk may lead next. The transport system includes several high-speed railway links that have improved since the 2002 outing, and in such a small country comparitively to somne of the other bidders, that's a big plus. Korea will have about the same potential as Japan when it comes to an overseas audience, but will most likely suffer on a local level comparatively. Without Japan as a merged bidder, South Korea lose a lot of stadia. Most Koreans would rather sit down at their computer and play StarCraft anyway, seeing as electronic sports are now the dominant form of competiton in the country. In terms of weather, the humid rainy season around July might linger around, but should play any part, as was seen in 2002. Again, big dent in the bid comes from the hosting of the cup just eight years ago. In fact it's a killer punch. Although South Korea want to host this cup, the combined security uncertainty and rotation policy working against them makes them the huge outsider in this race. Team ranking is no issue here - a strong side that put in a phenomenal performance in the 2010 edition in South Africa. Infrastructure isn't a problem, but would need a new or upgraded stadium to meet FIFA's new requirements - but there's plenty of facilities left from eight years ago. Korea must have the most never-racking atmosphere at the moment, but with a major international event that should change. I'll be brave and make the call that South Korea would have been better not wasting money on this campaign.

United States:
Domestic League (out of 10)_________7
Security (15)_____________________11
Transport/Access (10)______________5
Profitability (10)___________________8
Weather (10)_____________________9
Rotation Policy/Previous Hosting (10)__5
Team Ranking (5)__________________5
Infrastructure (20)_________________20
Atmosphere/Passion (10)____________8
TOTAL:78/100

Major League Soccer was actually invented as a means of securing America the 1994 World Cup. And it worked. Now in place for 17 years, it is seeking expansion into the next few years to twenty teams. The only penalty I can give the league is a similar penalty I gave to Australia, in that it is nowhere near the dominant code in the country. However, you must remember, it did little to stop the U.S. getting the rights to 1994. We never know what the next batch of voters might think. I'm giving the U.S. a lower score for security than any other country. Even though one bid is occurring in the Middle East, I think the perception that this is grounds to not award a country an international sports event is incredibly judgemental. At this present point in time, America is the most vulnerable country in the world to Terrorism. And the nature of the TSA, whose strict security measures have been doing high levels of rotation in the media, is only helping make the U.S. look more paranoid than what it is. Like Australia, the U.S. suffers because of sheer size, and a similarly congested system of airlines, which again are the only feasible way to jump to locations quickly. Profitability is guaranteed from the U.S. We can also be guaranteed decent support at a local level, as was seen at the economically and globally successful 1994 edition of the cup. Time zones aren't a huge deal, and the sheer power of the U.S. networks will surely fix any issues that would arise. Who knows, they could even make a match start at 9am local time if they wanted. Weather is not an issue at all, in fact, quite a bit of variety is guaranteed - which is great for the players. Although the U.S. hosted the cup in 1994, its success means the rotation policy doesnt hurt that much in that respet. What will hurt, though, is the 2016 cup in Brazil. 8 years isn't much time to bring the cup straight back to the Americas after a quick European sidetrip. Team ranking is no issue, and although support for the game isn't mindblowing, there is obviously plenty of committment at all levels of the game, much like Australia - which is impressive considering the tussle going on between the four major leagues of the U.S. and Canada (MLB, NHL, NFL, MLS). David Beckham did massive favours by joining the L.A. Galaxy, let me tell you. America wins by a landslide in the infrastructure stakes. The U.S. have a massive amount of 70,000+ capacity stadiums, and enough money to make any renovations that FIFA might recommend. Atmosphere and passion for the game takes a little bit of a penalty with such a jumble of sports going on. I can't help but feel that when I watch American sports as opposed to Australian sports, the major difference seems to be that the U.S. are so engrossed by their own leagues that they become detached from international sports events. It's not a bad thing at all, but not great for hosting a global event where average global support for the event vastly outweighs that on a local level. But it's just a hunch, and I'm probably wrong. I find it hard to separate the U.S. and Australian bids - each have their merits, but will struggle to match the heavy backing being received by the Qatar bid.

I hope you enjoyed this preview. Please leave any feedback in the comments section, and I look forward to watching the decision early Friday morning Australian time.

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